"Organizations drift toward decisions that minimize conflict, not risk.
Six months from now, the write-up will read like inevitability. In a dependency upgrade with unknown blast radius, every step on the way will have sounded reasonable. That is how drift stays invisible.
In a dependency upgrade with unknown blast radius, you will feel pressure to keep the conversation optimistic. Optimism is expensive when it prevents guardrails. You see it in a safety check treated like a tool instead of a set of interactions. A standard you cannot apply in one pass is not a standard; it is a preference disguised as governance.
Chris Argyris is a reminder to audit the argument, not the intention. Put the assumption into words, then choose the signal that forces you to revisit it. Keep it short enough to remember under stress.