Hard Problems
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Organizations become efficient at producing the outcomes they experience most often.

Geoffrey VickersThe Art of Judgment, 1965

Six months from now, the write-up will read like inevitability. In a rewrite proposal that assumes the ending is known, every step on the way will have sounded reasonable. That is how drift stays invisible.

In a rewrite proposal that assumes the ending is known, you will be tempted to trade a small, visible win for a large, delayed cost. Drift happens when the cost stays unnamed. You see it in removing redundancy from a deployment path to look “lean”. A clean stop line prevents optimism from keeping a failing bet alive long after the evidence turns.

Geoffrey Vickers is a reminder to audit the argument, not the intention. Draft the future critique now: how this fails and what justification you will be tempted to use, then name one guardrail. Be calm and explicit.

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