"Experience is a poor teacher when outcomes are delayed or ambiguous.
Six months from now, the write-up will read like inevitability. In a migration that looks reversible until the data moves, every step on the way will have sounded reasonable. That is how drift stays invisible.
In a migration that looks reversible until the data moves, you will feel pressure to keep the conversation optimistic. Optimism is expensive when it prevents guardrails. You see it in estimates that harden into commitments because the numbers look clean. A single written sentence can remove more noise than another meeting, because it stops the renegotiation loop.
James G. March is a reminder to audit the argument, not the intention. Name the assumption and the observable signal that would invalidate it. Do not hide the cost in prose.